The hottest year 2012 is not the end of the world

  • Detail

2012 is not the "doomsday" of China's steel enterprises

2012 is not the "doomsday" of China's steel enterprises

China Construction machinery information

Introduction: analysts frankly say that China's steel market is more a policy market. If the steel industry wants to get out of the current downturn, in a considerable period of time, investment driven demand is particularly critical to revitalizing the steel industry. Winter has arrived, and will spring be far behind? The legendary name of the English poet Shelley

analysts bluntly say that China's steel market is more a policy market. If the steel industry wants to get out of the current downturn, investment driven demand is particularly critical to revitalizing the steel industry for a long time.

"winter has arrived, can spring be far behind?" This famous sentence handed down by British poet Shelley is often used to express people's optimism and expectation for the future under difficult circumstances. However, for the steel industry, "winter has arrived" has been a reality that has lasted for several years, but the pace of industry recovery has always been delayed

"the steel industry will be prepared for a long winter, and steel enterprises should actively adapt to the difficult situation of high production capacity, high cost and low efficiency as soon as possible." At the strategic development and Investment Summit of China's steel industry chain held recently, Zhang Changfu, vice president and Secretary General of CISA, appealed

however, many industry insiders believe that the national macro-economy introduced recently may release a signal of spring for the steel industry. In particular, at the just concluded central economic work conference, promoting urbanization will be one of the key tasks of China's economic development next year. This is regarded by the industry as an important driving force to drive the demand of the steel market

"overall, I feel that the situation in 2013 is better than that in 2012, but it's hard to say how good it is. There should be some pull in demand, but the pull depends on the overall progress of urbanization." Yesterday, a large state-owned steel enterprise management told

steel enterprises encounter "the coldest winter"

"2012 is a very miserable year for the steel industry. Jinan testing machine factory wishes a happy and strong new year's day." "My steel" analyst Zhang Tieshan said with emotion in an interview yesterday

since this year, China's steel industry has continued to face the grim situation of low prices and high costs, and the economic benefits of steel enterprises have further declined. Data show that in the first two months of the year, the national key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises achieved a cumulative sales revenue of 546.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.46%; The realized profit was -2.804 billion yuan, which changed from a loss in the main industry of steel production to an industrial loss

subsequently, this industry wide loss continued to expand. According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, 80 key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises lost 5.223 billion yuan in profits in June, with an industry profit margin of -0.18% and a loss surface of 38.75%, with a cumulative loss of 31 enterprises

"a ton of soybean dregs is more expensive than a ton of steel", "a kilogram of steel is less than 4 liang of pork" and other statements are also heard from time to time. "Basically, enterprises will lose 70 yuan per ton of steel produced, and some enterprises will lose more than 300 yuan per ton of steel produced." Liu Zhenjiang, Secretary of the Party committee and vice president of CISA, said so a few days ago. Some insiders simply use "the coldest winter" to describe the current situation of the steel industry

the depth of the steel industry is extremely cold, which also makes the listed steel enterprises become the group with the most serious "blood loss" among the A-share listed companies. According to publicly disclosed data, in the first three quarters of this year, 16 of the 44 steel enterprises, including Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., suffered losses, while only Valin Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Xinri Hengli Co., Ltd. suffered losses in the same period last year. At the same time, steel listed companies accounted for six of the top ten loss making companies in the third quarter of this year. Among them, Angang Steel ranked third with a loss of 3.17 billion yuan, followed by Maanshan Steel with 3.14 billion yuan

it is still difficult to turn around the deficit by seeking breakthrough in multiple ways

facing the difficulties of the industry, many steel enterprises have not thought about the way to break through. In fact, from raising pigs and doing e-commerce at WISCO to "going out to sea" to buy mines at Angang and Baosteel, more and more steel enterprises are playing non steel industry cards or diversified cards, trying to achieve "the East is not bright, the west is bright"

"now the iron and steel industry is already a low profit enterprise. In order to survive and develop, iron and steel enterprises must rely on other directions to open up a broader market." A person from WISCO said earlier

as a leading enterprise in China's iron and steel industry, WISCO has frequently become the focus of media attention this year. However, the reason for concern is not its main steel industry, but its preparation to spend a lot of money to build 10000 pig farms and enter the field of e-commerce. It is reported that according to WISCO's "12th Five Year Plan", 110billion yuan of output value will come from the non steel industry during the "12th Five Year Plan", accounting for more than 30% of the total output value. Similarly, Maanshan Iron and Steel Co. recently put forward the concept of the development of the non steel industry during the "12th Five Year Plan", saying that it will actively do a good job in the capital operation of emerging industries and modern service industries, including the logistics industry, while maintaining the "land" of the main steel industry, With the help of Zhengpu port and Ma'anshan Yangtze River Bridge under construction in He county, we will develop domestic and foreign trade and logistics transportation

but at present, these steel aircraft carriers are still unable to save corporate profits by diversification

"(diversification) has some effects. But Masteel's main business is very prominent, and the steel business accounts for a large proportion. Although the diversified industry has profits, it is very small. You see, the main business lost more than 30 billion in the third quarter, and other profits are obviously much smaller than this comparison, not an order of magnitude." Yesterday, a person from Masteel said

in addition, in order to reduce the amount of losses, many steel enterprises have also used accounting magic this year to increase profits for the company by adjusting the depreciation life of fixed assets

for example, WISCO announced at the end of June that it would extend the depreciation period of fixed assets such as houses, buildings and machinery and equipment for three years, and the starting date of adjustment was April 1, 2012. Extending the depreciation life of fixed assets can increase the company's profits in the reporting period. According to WISCO's prediction, this move will increase the company's net profit in 2012 by no more than 540million yuan

it is also reported that since this year, six steel enterprises, including Xingang Co., Ltd., Nangang Co., Ltd. and Valin steel, have made similar accounting adjustments. Through these measures, they have increased profits by more than 1 for 2012, which is an excellent manipulation function with more than 2billion yuan

however, the above-mentioned person from Masteel revealed to this newspaper that the company does not intend to make asset depreciation adjustment this year. "We have adjusted it once last year, because the original (depreciation of fixed assets) is obviously high, but after the adjustment, the depreciation is not very high, so there is no need to adjust it again." The person said: "Moreover, the impact on profits is not fundamental, that is, it can reduce losses a little, but there will be no significant improvement.

according to data statistics, at present, 15 of the 35 listed companies in the steel industry have announced the 2012 annual report forecast. Among them, 6 steel companies lost the first time; 2 continued to lose; 4 net profit pre reduced; only 1 steel company increased in advance; 2 steel companies increased slightly.

from the specific data, at present, the net profit loss of Shaogang Songshan is the most To be serious, the company's 2012 annual report forecast showed that the net profit was about -1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.14%. In addition, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. did not predict the specific data of its net profit, but said that its net profit fell by more than 50%. Anyang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. also said that their net profits were all losses

urbanization is expected to turn for the better

however, there is not no good news. Generally speaking, winter is the off-season for steel demand, but steel prices have rebounded unexpectedly in December this year. On December 11, Baosteel Co., Ltd., which is regarded as the industry vane, took the lead in issuing the first price policy in 2013. Except that the prices of hot-dip galvanizing and electro galvanizing products remained stable, the prices of other products were increased by yuan/ton. This is also the price increase of Baosteel again after December

for this increase, expert analysis is mainly due to the positive outlook of steel enterprises on the industry and the recovery of downstream industries. Data showed that the added value of industries above Designated Size and manufacturing PMI had bottomed out in August. In November, the added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 10.1% year-on-year, the highest since April this year, and returned to more than 10% for the first time in eight months

among the 72 tension machines of several brands at home and abroad investigated,

the recent economic policy has also brought a long lost "spring" to the steel industry

the latest analysis report from Lange steel pointed out that in 2013, infrastructure construction investment will become the main means of steady growth and the main force driving economic growth. Specifically, the capital construction investment in 2013 was mainly concentrated in transportation. The Ministry of Railways tentatively plans to invest 530billion yuan in the capital construction of National Railways in 2013. Infrastructure investment will become an important driving force to promote the recovery of the steel market in 2013. With the funding of new projects in place and the start of construction, it will directly stimulate the demand for construction steel

not only that, at the central economic work conference held recently, the policy of "actively and steadily promote urbanization and strive to improve the quality of urbanization" has injected another "booster" into the steel industry. At present, China's urbanization rate is just over 50%, and every percentage point of urbanization rate corresponds to tens of millions of people and trillions of yuan of investment and consumption

Lange Steel Information Research Center believes that urbanization construction and infrastructure investment not only stimulate domestic demand, but also stimulate domestic investment. In 2013, China's urbanization construction and infrastructure investment are still important driving forces driving China's steel demand

"under the current situation that the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry cannot be solved in the short term and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to be substantially improved, the macroeconomic trend determines the value center of the trend of China's steel market. In 2013, China's macroeconomic trend was generally positive, and China's steel industry has a great correlation with the macroeconomic trend. Therefore, the value center of China's steel market in 2013 will rise compared with 2012." According to the Research Report of Lange steel information research center

the latest research report of Huatai Securities bluntly said: "China's steel market is more a policy market. If the steel industry wants to get out of the current downturn, in addition to controlling production, mergers and acquisitions at the endogenous level, the demand driven by investment is particularly critical to revitalizing the steel and iron industry for a long time." According to the report, according to the prediction of experts from the national development and Reform Commission, the promotion of urbanization policy will bring investment demand of no less than 30 trillion in the next 10 years. If the capital problem is solved, in the long run, this will significantly boost the moderate recovery of the steel industry

"overall, I feel that the situation in 2013 is better than that in 2012, but it's hard to say how good it is. There should be some pull in demand, but the pull depends on the overall progress of urbanization." Yesterday, a manager of a large state-owned steel enterprise told this newspaper

however, some insiders are still not optimistic about the trend of the steel industry next year. "From the point of view of some experts I know, this crisis will take an era. Counting from 2008, it is not half over. It is still very difficult." Zhangtieshan road. In his view, the so-called new urbanization refers to the establishment of a sound urbanization system for medical treatment, health care and pension, rather than simply expanding real estate

Baosteel invested 3.2 billion yuan

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI